cantdrive85 - Feb 22, 2017

Scientists have gotten better at predicting where earthquakes will occur, but they're still in the dark about when they will strike and how devastating they will be.

There is an app for that, the Disaster Prediction App.
http://www.suspic...vers.org
And a paper too;
http://quakewatch...rt-1.pdf

gkam - Feb 22, 2017

I expect a huge one here in my lifetime, and I am 72.

barakn - Feb 22, 2017

There is an app for that, the Disaster Prediction App.
http://www.suspic...vers.org

$30/year ? A fool and his money are soon parted.

cantdrive85 - Feb 22, 2017

You shouldn't spend such a substantial portion of your yearly income (10% or so, right?) on such an app, it would be fiscally irresponsible for you to do such a thing. For others of us spending .0001% of their income for a science project with well over a 50% success rate seems reasonable.

barakn - Feb 22, 2017

50% success rate. Ha! You are so gullible.

Steelwolf - Feb 23, 2017

On EQ Prediction it is very true that Suspicious Observers have released an app. Actually, Ben Davidson, who runs the Suspicious Observer site has been making some very accurate predictions using the Solar Sunspots and solar wind data and has been at the 80%+ on his accuracy. His Published Papers are exceedingly well done, and are rigorous studies and work that even other scientists are finding that their work backs his and vice versa. His Disaster Prediction App is actually fairly cheap for the amount of work that has gone into it.

Disbelievers may want to check it out anyhow, be prepared for the rigorous analysis that Ben uses.

jonesdave - Feb 23, 2017

Disbelievers may want to check it out anyhow, be prepared for the rigorous analysis that Ben uses.


Lol. No more rigorous than a tabloid psychic! There is a thread here on this bloke:
https://forum.cos...d9fee1da

There was a much longer thread on ISF. In that, I was able to show that my contention that my having bacon for breakfast was just as accurate for forecasting EQs as his nonsense. One only has to know where the most earthquake prone areas are, and to then do a statistical analysis of the likelihood of a particular magnitude earthquake happening in a certain time period, and it is relatively easy.
Of course, it is easy to be taken in by such apparently correct predictions, if one doesn't understand such things.
Essentially, he's just playing a numbers game. It's a scam.

cantdrive85 - Feb 23, 2017

jonesdumb is just a compulsive liar, he will rant and rave and spread ad hominem attacks with no response to the actual science. You can see an example of his compulsive lying here, and where he "conveniently" fails to address it.
https://phys.org/...ons.html
Pathetic that all he has are lies and attacks.

derphys - Feb 25, 2017

Beautiful work on the microscopic properties, but very unlikely this kinds of insights could help us predict earthquakes, because they are collectives failures growing very fast after a very long nucleation time of a, impossible to predict.

derphys - Feb 25, 2017

Beautiful work on the microscopic properties, but very unlikely this kinds of insights could help us predict earthquakes, because they are collectives failures growing very fast after a very long slow nucleation time with a very large numbers of slow microscopic events, impossible to predict.
Try to predict when a simple calendar stuck on a wall with scotch tape will fall down witin a minute six months later !!
This is an experiment that I make every year and impossible to predict when the calendar will fall down !!!

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