I saw a documentary about a week or so ago, in which one of the apollo astranauts and some oceanographers proved that much of the coral deaths in the atlantic are caused not by man, but by a FUNGUS which grows in Africa and rides on dust particles which then fall into the atlantic. These particles then carry the fungus down in the water collum where they are ingested by corals and infect them.
the good news is the islands arent going anywhere anytime soon. the bad news is caliban and his little girlfriend will have to figure out why global warming isnt causing sea levels to rise more than two millimeters a year.
I read just fine.
Like all good AGWites, AP and Physorg had to spin it as if disaster is just around the corner instead of reconsidering their AGW religion.
"the good news is that the atolls are still largely intact"
-uh maybe caliban dont read so good
"While four had gotten smaller, the other 23 had either stayed the same or grown bigger"
they arent "largely intact" they are for the most part increasing in size. i know the new paradigm is to never let a crisis go to waste, but what are you propagandists suppose to do with all this good news? very inconvenient.
I'm also worried that reported sea level changes are about the same size as plate tectonics. Has anyone done research that can show these changes are actually because the water is getting higher, not the island getting lower?
That is the conclusion I have reached. More rain, more snow. More snow, more snow cover, more glaciers, ....ice age.And that conclusion is completely incorrect, thanks for playing "So you want to be a scientist..."
skeptic heretic you arent very bright are you. none of the atolls are missing.0. while im sure you have authored a vast body of scientific papers, you clearly havent read this study or even this article.Sorry, "friend", I'm fairly well read on the subject. Since you're so slick, how about you tell us the nature of the mechanics that are maintaining the Atoll. Simply naming all 10 would greatly serve to further your statement.
Why don't you try doing a little research before spouting off, for a change?That is the conclusion I have reached. More rain, more snow. More snow, more snow cover, more glaciers, ....ice age.And that conclusion is completely incorrect, thanks for playing "So you want to be a scientist..."
Why don't you try doing a little research before spouting off, for a change?And that assists his statement of an Ice Age how?
"To preserve energy balance, latent heating
must increase to balance this cooling. Therefore,
precipitation increases with global warming."
Credit: http://www.atmos....2008.pdf
Why don't you try doing a little research before spouting off, for a change?And that assists his statement of an Ice Age how?
"To preserve energy balance, latent heating
must increase to balance this cooling. Therefore,
precipitation increases with global warming."
Credit: http://www.atmos....2008.pdf
Not all precipitation comes in the form of rain. It's certainly conceivable that the poles might substantially "benefit" from this increased precipitation (in the form of snow) which could eventually cascade into more reflectivity, less energy absorption, and a subsequent ice age.Someone who is well read within the current understanding of AGW and thermal heat transfer would state this to be ridiculous.
Of course, it's a highly speculative conjecture, but it's certainly not as ridiculous as you would portray.
Someone who is well read within the current understanding of AGW and thermal heat transfer would state this to be ridiculous.Sure. The aforementioned conjectured increase in the snow caps hasn't been seen, but this doesn't mean it absolutely can't happen.
One need simply look at multiyear ice coverage at the poles for an example of why this is utterly foolish.
At high elevations, instead of rain, it snows. Mountains all over the world accumulate more snow increasing albedo until it snows at lower and lower elevations and stays longer and longer....If only that were true, then California wouldn't be facing a future of diminishing snow packs in the Sierra mountains, and ever-diminishing freshwater supplies, as currently predicted by climate models.
@ubavontuba,The northern ice/snow cap (in particular) extends quite far south in the winter (primarily on land). If more snow is accumulated, it stays longer into the spring... increasing reflectivity... decreasing total energy absorption... making glaciers grow.
Have you lost track of where that line of thought started: /oceans/ GETTING WARMER?
How would that be conducive to formation of additional ice near the poles? You must be aware that the polar landmasses are already covered with snow and ice year-round. Making such glaciers thicker, even if it couldn't be ruled out, doesn't increase the overall albedo of the planet. With respect to albedo, it's area of snow/ice cover that counts, not volume. And the primary way to increase area, is to increase the amount of floating ice. You know, ice that floats on WARMING oceans? (uhhh...huh?)
If only that were true, then California wouldn't be facing a future of diminishing snow packs in the Sierra mountains, and ever-diminishing freshwater supplies, as currently predicted by climate models.That was true, until this year. I just visited Yosemite. There's still snow in the high passes! In fact, it just snowed again the other day, throughout the Sierra!
Most mountains aren't tall enough to turn precipitation into snow, particularly when that precipitation comes in the form of WARM air masses (and hence warm rain), particularly in the summer.
Increased rains in the warmer seasons melt off any snow accumulation during winter, and then some. You get net loss, over time.
Just look up what's been happening with spring season onset times all over the globe, and in related news, what's been happening with vegetation vs. height. The mountains are getting warmer, not cooler.
Sure. The aforementioned conjectured increase in the snow caps hasn't been seen, but this doesn't mean it absolutely can't happen.
And, California has had an unusually cool and wet spring, overall.Western Pacific El Ninos will do that.
Hence why I said "familiar with thermal heat transfer". With a warmer ocean and greater precipitation in the form of snow you'll find a wide disparity between hot hemispheres and cold hemispheres. This will drive wind and storms up in intensity, which will lead to higher ablation of existing and forming ice packs.Only on water. On land, the ice could expand. Both the northern and southern snow caps have sufficient landmass to enable the aforementiioned cascade (particularly the northern snow cap).
You'll see an even greater reduction in ice cover with a greater hot/cold disparity between hemispheres due to enhanced Co2 content.
Western Pacific El Ninos will do that.Right. So why don't you see it?
Only on water. On land, the ice could expand. Both the northern and southern snow caps have sufficient landmass to enable the aforementiioned cascade (particularly the northern snow cap).Uh, no. Again thermal mechanics show you're wrong. Water will transfer heat very readily to land. This will serve to insulate and increase heating at the botom of ice structures creating meltwater current and channels underneath the ice. This water will more readily accept heat from the land and expediate the process as has been shown by current glacial mechanics and further evidenced through the thermal interaction studies performed at both poles.
Right. So why don't you see it?Probably because this is the first recorded far western el nino that our current climatological record has seen with modern equipment. The position is a direct result of tennets of AGW being correct.
I notice in the message calling me out you state this is "highly conjectural." If it is such you should say that from the beginning.I did! I did it in the first reply I wrote after SH asked me why I defended marjon's notion.
Uh, no. Again thermal mechanics show you're wrong. Water will transfer heat very readily to land. This will serve to insulate and increase heating at the botom of ice structures creating meltwater current and channels underneath the ice. This water will more readily accept heat from the land and expediate the process as has been shown by current glacial mechanics and further evidenced through the thermal interaction studies performed at both poles.It seems you're not understanding this point:
It seems you're not understanding this point:Of course.
If an average winter storm temperature is initially 0 degrees farenheit, it snows in the winter.
If GW raises this region's average storm temperature an astounding (and unrealistic) 20 degress, it still snows in the winter!Of course however that doesn't take into account the temperature of the ground, water, or the origin of all blackbody radiation of the planet.
If this snow is exceptionally heavy and dense due to increased precipitation, it stays longer...Not true. Ambient temperature, thermal properties of dissolved particulates, ground consistency and conduction properties, as well as thousands of other factors affect this.
So, if none of this is even remotely possible,And here comes the straw man...
please explain the snow currently resting in Yosemite's high passes (in June!).http://www.nps.gov/yose/planyourvisit/conditions.htm
Probably because this is the first recorded far western el nino that our current climatological record has seen with modern equipment. The position is a direct result of tennets of AGW being correct.According to your assertions, snow in lower lattitudes should occur less frequently and stay for a shorter duration. In essence, considering all the GW we've accumulated, May/June snow in Yosemite should be impossible (in light of your assertions). And yet, there it is. I actually had a snowball fight with my son in it, just two weekends ago!
So, why don't you see it?
According to your assertions, snow in lower lattitudes should occur less frequently and stay for a shorter duration.Dependent on the prevailing terrain and average climate over long time scales.
In essence, considering all the GW we've accumulated, May/June snow in Yosemite should be impossible (in light of your assertions).Sorry I never made a specific statement about Yosemite itself. Considering how large an area it is you'll need to clarify where you're talking about.
And yet, there it is. I actually had a snowball fight with my son in it, just two weekends ago!I've had snowball fights in June in Massachusetts within my lifetime. It was an abnormally large amount of snowfall, well over the record and the area I was in stayed cool. I was also located in a valley so that microclimate enabled long term snow cover, it's called an outlier and it's subjective. So give me the exact conditions and I'll be happy to explain.
Sorry, that doesn't fly. Source?
Dependent on the prevailing terrain and average climate over long time scales.According to your assertions, increased snow with a warmer ocean is impossible! And yet, we have a warm ocean (El Nino current) and INCREASED snow! How does that work?
Sorry I never made a specific statement about Yosemite itself. Considering how large an area it is you'll need to clarify where you're talking about.Actually, it's similarly affected nearly the entire Sierra snowpack!
've had snowball fights in June in Massachusetts within my lifetime. It was an abnormally large amount of snowfall, well over the record and the area I was in stayed cool. I was also located in a valley so that microclimate enabled long term snow cover, it's called an outlier and it's subjective. So give me the exact conditions and I'll be happy to explain.Warm ocean (El Nino), and 140% of normal snowpack. Explain.
know, the graph on there is very telling. Do you see the running averages over the 100 year record at the bottom? Do you see how the ambient snow values fluxuate on a cycle that is suspiciously close to the El Nino-La Nina 11 year Cycle? So what affect do you think we will inflict upon the snow figures going forward if the el nino-la nina cycle continues to ocillate more and more wildly due to increased oceanic temperature fluxuation?Uh, obviously, the warm current INCREASES the snowpack. Also, please note the snow is measured in April, which means a lot of the late El Nino snow is not included.
Yes, less snow on average punctuated by periods of overwhelming snow.Wrong. Generally, there's less snow with a cooler ocean, more snow with a warmer ocean. It's opposite to your assertions!
When you feed more energy into a system the oscillations of that system around the equilibrium point will increase in intensity. Similar to reciving a massive amount of snow across the entire midwest as late as April, then having an imprompteau flood as all the increased snowfall rapidly melts and floods major cities and towns.Oh brother. You mean it wouldn't be so laughable if you'd done even some basic research to see if your assertions hold up in real-world conditions!
It wouldn't be so laughable if you were incorporating more of your knowledge into your understanding of the system at large.
Oh brother. You mean it wouldn't be so laughable if you'd done even some basic research to see if your assertions hold up in real-world conditions!
Looks like it does.What, that snow melts? And MORE snow melts into more water?
Your assertion was that the snow shouldn't be there at all. Your assertion was that it would essentially not snow at all, or that it wouldn't survive on the ground.Strawman, no it wasn't.
Has it occured to you just how unusually full these streams are so late in the season, and that there's still snow yet to be melted?Has it occured to you that a greater amount of snow melt creates the flood situation?
If it doesn't all melt, and the cycle repeats similalry for a few seasons, can we say glaciation has increased?Only if it doesn't all melt. Why don't you tell me how much snow is on the ground in your backyard right now.
You seem to have extreme difficulty in understanding what I'm saying.But that's not what's happening.I don't think so.A la nina will allow cooler atmospheric currents to allow the snow to remain around longer.
A cooler ocean produces cooler currents producing less precipitation and less oscillating melt.But you have to have something there for it not to melt.
A warm ocean, especially an abnormally warm one will cause greater disparity between cold polar air currents and warm tropical air currents resulting in MORE precipitation adn having the sideeffect of it sticking around for LESS time.Then why is it still sticking around?
This is directly evidenced by current events as you've depicted them, the news, and the sources and data that you have provided. Make sense now?To me, yes. To you, obviously no. Again, as evidenced in the Sierra, the conditions can be opposite to your assertions. The warm ocean snow is denser and it's staying longer.
Uh, yeah it was. Here you said it again:Your assertion was that the snow shouldn't be there at all. Your assertion was that it would essentially not snow at all, or that it wouldn't survive on the ground.Strawman, no it wasn't.
A la nina will allow cooler atmospheric currents to allow the snow to remain around longer. A cooler ocean produces cooler currents producing less precipitation and less oscillating melt.Moving on...
A warm ocean, especially an abnormally warm one will cause greater disparity between cold polar air currents and warm tropical air currents resulting in MORE precipitation adn having the sideeffect of it sticking around for LESS time.
Has it occured to you that a greater amount of snow melt creates the flood situation?Other than being messy, what's that got to do with the subject at hand?
Sorry, that doesn't fly. Source?If it doesn't all melt, and the cycle repeats similalry for a few seasons, can we say glaciation has increased?Only if it doesn't all melt. Why don't you tell me how much snow is on the ground in your backyard right now.
The picture you attached is snow free in the areas that are typically snow free this time of year and you show snow at the USGS station, which is also quite normal.
What does your backyard look like right now, I'm sure you have a digital camera.We're not talking about my backyard. But it is unusually green and lush for this time of year.
But that's not what's happening.Correct, we're in an El-Nino cycle.
But you have to have something there for it not to melt.I said less precipitation, not no precipitation.
Then why is it still sticking around?You still have not evidenced that there is a greater amount of snow on the ground now than in the recent record of 100 years. As such I can't address this point because you refuse to show your evidence.
To me, yes. To you, obviously no. Again, as evidenced in the Sierra, the conditions can be opposite to your assertions. The warm ocean snow is denser and it's staying longer.Longer than what? Longer than you remember it being around or are you keeping a log book that we can reference? The datasets collected by all accredited scientific institutions agree with me, you even linked one.
Sorry, that doesn't fly. Source?
We're not talking about my backyard. But it is unusually green and lush for this time of year.But you were, remember?
And yet, there it is. I actually had a snowball fight with my son in it, just two weekends ago!Two weekends ago would also be may/june, as you said. Here's the USGS station at that time a weekend ago. http://maps.ca.wa...1500.jpg
I meant it doesn't stick around during El Nina and it does stick around during El Nino.But that's not what's happening.Correct, we're in an El-Nino cycle.
During El Nina, typically, there's no late season snow.But you have to have something there for it not to melt.I said less precipitation, not no precipitation.
Liar. I showed you that as of May 1 2010 it was 140% of normal.Then why is it still sticking around?You still have not evidenced that there is a greater amount of snow on the ground now than in the recent record of 100 years. As such I can't address this point because you refuse to show your evidence.
I meant it doesn't stick around during El Nina and it does stick around during El Nino.No it doesn't, and just as I said above, the presistency of Snow has many thousands of factors, none of which we've addressed other than warming and cooling currents. If you'd cease engaging in silly acts of sophistry and straw man arguments perhaps we could discuss them.
During El Nina, typically, there's no late season snow.Relevence?
Liar. I showed you that as of May 1 2010 it was 140% of normal.
Longer than what? Longer than you remember it being around or are you keeping a log book that we can reference? The datasets collected by all accredited scientific institutions agree with me, you even linked one.Why is it that those using strawman arguments are always the first to accuse others of doing so? ...Oh, right, that's because doing so is a strawman argument!
Your second post is simply a repeat of your straw man using my commentary that specifically rejects what you insinuate I'm saying. Looks like you're done arguing
a model which handily, and in real-world circumstance, belies your assertions.You mean agrees with them? As so far you haven't been able to prove any of your assertions and are basing your statements on your subjective experiences with your son. You haven't provided any evidence or supporting statements aside from trying to detract from mine, which you've inadvertantly supported in several of your links.
Sorry, that doesn't fly. Source?
Actually it appears you're correct, but in being correct you've also shown your intepretation of the evidence to be incorrect.
Check out the snow or lack thereof in this shot of that same USGS station, taken 5 minutes prior to this posting from the website YOU linked.
http://ca.water.u...pyisles/
So you missed the Tioga Pass webcam image entirely?There isn't one, that is unless you'd like to point out what its titled as on that page.
You must have hit the link before i edited it. Here's an even better one though:So you missed the Tioga Pass webcam image entirely?There isn't one, that is unless you'd like to point out what its titled as on that page.
You must have hit the link before i edited it. Here's an even better one though:So you missed the Tioga Pass webcam image entirely?There isn't one, that is unless you'd like to point out what its titled as on that page.
http://tenaya.ucs...enta.jpg
The date on that image is December 5th 2009 and that is not remotely close to the link you currently have listed within any of your posts.Oops, my bad. I hadn't noticed that the webcam was out of service (usually the image is dark when that happens). No matter, there's plenty of webcams depicting unsual spring snow in the Sierra. Here's Kirkwood from 6-4-10:
No, you said it was, you showed nothing. The 140% figure you're touting is a runoff figure. That means there is 40% more melt than anticipated. More melt, typically implies there's more water, not snow, not ice, WATER.Oh, so you're going to insist that unusually high and late runoff is the result of a less than normal spring snowpack? Really? You see no correlation?
Nope,I read it all again, and it's you that brought up my backyard.We're not talking about my backyard. But it is unusually green and lush for this time of year.But you were, remember?
Uh, the ocean is cooler during La Nina, right? Shouldn't late season snow (in accordance with your assertions) be more prevalent then?During El Nina, typically, there's no late season snow.Relevence?
Actually, the statement the article made was, "Water content of SNOWPACK in Tuolumne drainage is 141%..." They're directly referencing the snow itself, not the melt. The "drainage" just indicates where it goes when it melts.Liar. I showed you that as of May 1 2010 it was 140% of normal.No, you said it was, you showed nothing. The 140% figure you're touting is a runoff figure. That means there is 40% more melt than anticipated. More melt, typically implies there's more water, not snow, not ice, WATER.
Liar, I clearly provided an official Yosemite snow condition report for May 2009 which states the snowpack is 134% to 141% of normal. Maybe you're having trouble reading?a model which handily, and in real-world circumstance, belies your assertions.You mean agrees with them? As so far you haven't been able to prove any of your assertions and are basing your statements on your subjective experiences with your son. You haven't provided any evidence or supporting statements aside from trying to detract from mine, which you've inadvertantly supported in several of your links.
If you have a statement of what is going on that more congruently fits the observations, bring it. Until then you've got nothing.
Uh, the ocean is cooler during La Nina, right? Shouldn't late season snow (in accordance with your assertions) be more prevalent then?No, less evaporation means less precipitation, try to follow along.
Rainy spring at Kirkwood... The clouds should move out of the area next week with forecasts calling for temperatures in the 70s at Kirkwood. The snow should start to meltaway quickly next week, giving us some time to get ready for summer opening weekend on July 3!
No, less evaporation means less precipitation, try to follow along.Oh, so you admit your stated assertion that, "A la nina will allow cooler atmospheric currents to allow the snow to remain around longer." is wrong?
Doesn't look like Kirkwood is out of the norm.It's not, for an El Nino year. It is, for a La Nina year. Obviously, a warmer ocean leads to more and longer lasting snow.
And all the Tahoe cams are currently down.You have to view them when it's daylight in Tahoe (they're live).
It's odd how your visual evidence seems to just fall apart on inspection.
FYI: when someone states the conditions of the snowpack for a drainage, it's refering to everything that feeds the particular river spoken of. You're referring to a particular pass, as so far your evidence of said pass is absent.What, the OFFICIAL snow report is insufficient? You want a picture of the pass from May too? Are you like in kindergarten? You need picture books?
You don't get it. Warm seas, more precipitation faster melt. Cool seas, less precip, less melt. Got it?You don't get it. Warm seas, more precipitation more snowpack. Cool seas, less precip, less snowpack. Got it?
Warm seas, more precipitation faster melt.
At altitudes, such precipitation is snow even at 4000' in Santa Barbara, CA.
@ubavontuba,
Have you seen the 2008 biennial assessment report? (Another one is due later this year.) If not, take a look:
http://www.climat...dex.html
(You'd probably want to view the "brochure" version that presents a 12-page summary with illustrations, rather than wading through all 114 pages of the full report.)
I think it's real. I just don't think it's necessarily a bad thing.Then I reiterate the recommendation that you read the 2008 biennial report (or at least its summary.) It will likely disabuse you of that impression, and a number of misconceptions evident in your other post.
I think it's real. I just don't think it's necessarily a bad thing.Then I reiterate the recommendation that you read the 2008 biennial report (or at least its summary.) It will likely disabuse you of that impression, and a number of misconceptions evident in your other post.
Oh, so you admit your stated assertion that, "A la nina will allow cooler atmospheric currents to allow the snow to remain around longer." is wrong?
And, "A warm ocean, ...will (result) in MORE precipitation and having the sideeffect of it sticking around for LESS time." is also wrong?
... and here it is. Every time you're cornered, "Oh brother" comes right out. That's quite a tell; stay away from poker, is my advice.Apparently, you've never read the Sunday funnies. "Oh brother!" is an expression of exasperation, often used by the Peanuts characters (like Charlie Brown).
First, current climate events are unprecedented at least in the last 650,000 years (that's in the preamble of that booklet I keep mentioning; comes out of Antarctic ice cores in case you were wondering.)And of course, since it's in the preamble, it must absolutely be true (sarcasm).
Second, El Nino is a specific configuration where at the surface, equatorial Pacific becomes markedly warmer than normal, whereas other areas of the ocean remain at their normal temperature. With global warming, every part of every ocean is going to warm up; so global warming is NOT the equivalent of a permanent El Nino.Right. I was only using it as a real world model of possible, future global conditions. As already brought into evidence, warmer oceans should increase the water cycle. A worldwide increase could be a good thing (generally).
Third, the report you denigrated deals with long-term trends, and not with short-term events connected with the last La Nina (you'd know if you actually looked...)What, you mean like increased forest fires? That's more the result of long-term fire suppression than GW! You can tell by looking at historical pictures of the Sierra (less trees than today).
You do have one thing right: global warming will be disruptive to local climates, in the same way El Nino/La Nina are disruptive.Right. Lots more precipitation, Lots more snow - lasting longer on the ground, and a possible cascade into an ice age (should the oceans heat up enough and retain the heat long enough to support significantly increased glaciation).
AGWites believe they can stop AGW with socialism, but they have no clue how to 'fix' El Nino/La Nina.Actually, it's long been fixed (more or less). We've built lots of dams and modified waterways to hold and route water for the lean years. The problem is, the population in California is outgrowing the existing infrastructure.
And of course, since it's in the preamble, it must absolutely be true (sarcasm).You'd know it's true, if you were well-versed in the issues of global climate. But don't take my word for it:
Also, the projected dire temperature escalations predicted at the time that was written (alla, AL GORE) have not been seen.That's because they aren't supposed to be seen yet. They project 50-100 years into the future, genius.
That paper's own map (thanks to "the activities of man") shows that the Central Valley is actually cooler!Due to irrigation, which it also mentions is becoming less effective at masking warming.
As already brought into evidence, warmer oceans should increase the water cycle.Only in some places; other places will get drier (e.g. CA.)
A worldwide increase could be a good thing (generally).More floods, erosion, and landslides is a good thing (generally)?
Statements of persistency and statements of volume are not the same.In this case, they are.
I've written this plain as day 3 times now so it's rather obvious that you are trolling.But this is wrong. In El Nino years, the snow generally remains longer. It also snows in unusual places (coincidently, like my backyard).
One last time just for you.
El Nino, Warmer oceans, More evaporation of ocean water, leading to more precipitation, matched with warmer atmospheric currents creating MORE melt shorter persistency of the snow pack.
La Nina, cooler ocean temperatures, resulting in less ocean evap, resulting in less precipitation and cooler air currents creating longer term persistency of snow pack. Get it?This is wrong too. During La Nina years, there's insufficient snowfall for it to be retained (you can't retain what you don't have). Also, La Nina years generally have warmer and dryer Springs and Summers (leading to an earlier snowmelt, over El Nino years).
What, you mean like increased forest fires?No, I mean precipitation, temperature, growing season, vegetation belt, animal migration, and groundwater trends (it's all in that brochure, which your jaded eye refuses to take in.)
Lots more precipitation, Lots more snow - lasting longer on the groundNo, it won't last longer on the ground, because warm air and warm rains will melt it faster. The air and rains were cold this year in CA, because El Nino alters circulation patterns in such a way as to draw more air in from the COLD ocean. If that ocean got warmer, it wouldn't be so cold any more, would it? Or is that not obvious enough?
Obviously, the aforementioned cascade event seems unlikely, but it's not impossible.It IS impossible. You can't make something colder, by heating it. Ice age cycles are mediated by orbital perturbations (Milankovich cycles) leading to a change of insolation, which is then amplified by climate feedbacks.
An approximately 20% increase in precipitation is needed for every 1°C increase in temperature to maintain stability. Under continued historical trends, oscillations in climate modes and random variability will dominate inter-decadal variability in ice volume. Under the strong warming trend predicted by a regional climate model, the temperature trend will be the dominant forcing resulting in near total loss of Mount Shasta’s glaciers by the end of the twenty-first century.Never mind, it's obvious why you didn't...
You'd know it's true, if you were well-versed in the issues of global climate. But don't take my word for it:I know what an ice core is.
http://en.wikiped...Ice_core
That's because they aren't supposed to be seen yet. They project 50-100 years into the future, genius.What, you didn't see the graphs?
Due to irrigation, which it also mentions is becoming less effective at masking warming.Hmm. Those maps look pretty convincingly cooler to me. Maybe GW will bring the region back to normal?
Only in some places; other places will get drier (e.g. CA.)As observed during EL Nino years, this seems unlikely.
More floods, erosion, and landslides is a good thing (generally)?Less desert and more livable and farmable land, certainly is a good thing. Heck, GW has already been a boon to Greenland farmers!
No, I mean precipitation, temperature, growing season, vegetation belt, animal migration, and groundwater trends (it's all in that brochure, which your jaded eye refuses to take in.)What, you mean like we've NOT had this (El Nino) year?
No, it won't last longer on the ground, because warm air and warm rains will melt it faster. The air and rains were cold this year in CA, because El Nino alters circulation patterns in such a way as to draw more air in from the COLD ocean. If that ocean got warmer, it wouldn't be so cold any more, would it? Or is that not obvious enough?The ocean IS warmer during El Nino, genius. And, the air is cooler!
It IS impossible. You can't make something colder, by heating it. Ice age cycles are mediated by orbital perturbations (Milankovich cycles) leading to a change of insolation, which is then amplified by climate feedbacks.Or, if the oceans heat up, it might snow a lot more worldwide, leading to a cascade of more reflectivity...
I know what an ice core is.But do you know that it conveys information about past climate? In that particular case, stretching back 800,000 years, at annual resolution? Do you realize current climate events are unprecedented, according to these cores? If not, here's your chance to stop ridiculing, and start learning.
Those maps look pretty convincingly cooler to me.Evaporative cooling will do that. Unfortunately, we can't irrigate the whole planet, and our reserves of freshwater are dwindling (groundwater aquifers are depleting; Sierra runoff due to diminish.) Meanwhile, GW will require even MORE irrigation in the Central Valley, to counteract increased evaporation due to heat.
As observed during EL Nino years, this seems unlikely.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/5964108/New-El-Nino-increases-drought-threat.html
Why didn't you quote the rest of that abstract, clown:
Never mind, it's obvious why you didn't...
Less desert and more livable and farmable land, certainly is a good thing.Most farmable land happens to be at mid-latitudes, and much of it is coming under threat of desertification due to GW. Yes, lots of arctic bogs and tundra will melt and start belching clouds of methane and mosquitoes, but unfortunately peat bogs don't make for very good farmland.
GW has already been a boon to Greenland farmers!Here's hoping Greenland can feed the rest of the world.
What, you mean like we've NOT had this (El Nino) year?No, I mean multi-decadal trends. TRENDS, you know? Not outliers: TRENDS.
The ocean IS warmer during El Nino, genius. And, the air is cooler!No, only a part of the ocean is warmer, and the air over it is warmer as well. That warm part just happens to be far south of CA shores, so the warm air from it doesn't tend to reach us. Instead, we get the icy blasts from the southward-bound arctic currents.
This just serves to show how ridiculous these assertions are. In spite of increased glaciation, they belligerently insist it will decrease - someday in the future - but we're not sure when!
Give me a break! That's not science!
An approximately 20% increase in precipitation is needed for every 1°C increase in temperature to maintain stability.And yes, it's science. Even if your politics would prefer it wasn't.
But do you know that it conveys information about past climate? In that particular case, stretching back 800,000 years, at annual resolution? Do you realize current climate events are unprecedented, according to these cores? If not, here's your chance to stop ridiculing, and start learning.Are you suggesting the world has NEVER been warmer than it is now?
Evaporative cooling will do that. Unfortunately, we can't irrigate the whole planet, and our reserves of freshwater are dwindling (groundwater aquifers are depleting; Sierra runoff due to diminish.) Meanwhile, GW will require even MORE irrigation in the Central Valley, to counteract increased evaporation due to heat.Or, it could be more like this past El Nino season. We might need LESS irrigation.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/5964108/New-El-Nino-increases-drought-threat.htmlOn average, it seems to bring more rain to the world, than not.
Are you suggesting the world has NEVER been warmer than it is now?The data is not "suggesting", but TELLING us all that the world has not been as warm at least in the last ~800,000 years as it's about to be 100 years from now. In the last ~800,000 years CO2 never rose above 280 ppm; it's now at 385 and will be somewhere north of 600 ppm by 2100 if we continue on our present track. The RATE at which global temperature is going up now, is also unprecedented over the past 800,000 years.
Or, it could be more like this past El Nino season.But it won't be. Climate models say so, and until you build a model based on all known physics that shows otherwise, you're just grasping at straws.
On average, it seems to bring more rain to the world, than not.Says who?
Most farmable land happens to be at mid-latitudes, and much of it is coming under threat of desertification due to GW. Yes, lots of arctic bogs and tundra will melt and start belching clouds of methane and mosquitoes, but unfortunately peat bogs don't make for very good farmland.Tell that to the Greenland farmer in the article. He's making a bundle!
Here's hoping Greenland can feed the rest of the world.Like that's the only place GW will make farmable (sarcasm). Is your glass always so empty?
No, I mean multi-decadal trends. TRENDS, you know? Not outliers: TRENDS.The trend is that a warm ocean (EL Nino) brings more precipitation and cooler temperatures. You can deny it all you want, but it won't make it untrue.
No, only a part of the ocean is warmer, and the air over it is warmer as well. That warm part just happens to be far south of CA shores, so the warm air from it doesn't tend to reach us. Instead, we get the icy blasts from the southward-bound arctic currents.That's only partially true. Often, during El Nino, the storms come right off the current and into California. It's commonly called, "The Pineapple Express."
The trend is that a warm ocean (EL Nino) brings more precipitation and cooler temperatures.No, it brings warmer temperatures. El Nino steals heat from SE Asia, and brings it toward Central and South Americas. They get warmer as a result. CA is too far removed from the equator, and so is not affected directly by this heat transfer: the ocean off CA shores remains cold. Really, why don't you first learn what you're talking about? Here, I'll make it easy for you:
Like that's the only place GW will make farmable (sarcasm).I know for a fact that it's making CA /less/ farmable. And CA currently produces an awful lot of food...
The data is not "suggesting", but TELLING us all that the world has not been as warm at least in the last ~800,000 years as it's about to be 100 years from now.First, that's not what I asked, and second, this data is about as real and reliable as your Mt. Shasta de-glaciation.
In the last ~800,000 years CO2 never rose above 280 ppm; it's now at 385 and will be somewhere north of 600 ppm by 2100 if we continue on our present track. The RATE at which global temperature is going up now, is also unprecedented over the past 800,000 years.As it turned out, the rate of increase is much less than expected.
But it won't be. Climate models say so, and until you build a model based on all known physics that shows otherwise, you're just grasping at straws.Sure, and we all know models are more accurate than real-world events (NOT!).
Says who?Funny thing, your article is from August 2009. In December of 2009 things looked a bit different:
First, that's not what I asked, and second, this data is about as real and reliable as your Mt. Shasta de-glaciation.I originally mentioned the last 600,000+ years, in response to your claims about the recent ~1000 years. You blurted something about "EVER". I repeated, expanding to ~800,000 years. Now what's your point?
As it turned out, the rate of increase is much less than expected.No, I wasn't talking about expected rate of increase. I was talking, again, about MEASURED rate of increase. Which is unprecedented (even if less than expected.)
It seems you're digging for information that only supports your contentionsYou claimed El Nino brings more rainfall globally, on average. "Says who?", said I.
No, it brings warmer temperatures. El Nino steals heat from SE Asia, and brings it toward Central and South Americas. They get warmer as a result. CA is too far removed from the equator, and so is not affected directly by this heat transfer: the ocean off CA shores remains cold. Really, why don't you first learn what you're talking about? Here, I'll make it easy for you:What article are you reading? It clearly states some places get warmer and some cooler, but most importantly, precipitation increases substantially throughout the Eastern Pacific.
I know for a fact that it's making CA /less/ farmable. And CA currently produces an awful lot of food...The current El Nino weather belies your assertion. Did you know they're having to restructure the water distribution due to all the rain we've had this year? The farmers are positively ecstatic!
I originally mentioned the last 600,000+ years, in response to your claims about the recent ~1000 years. You blurted something about "EVER". I repeated, expanding to ~800,000 years. Now what's your point?Read my question again, genius.
This data is real: it comes from Antarctic ice cores.It's not the ice cores themselves that are a problem here. It's the unsupportable prognostication.
That Mt. Shasta data was the resident clown's initiative, not "mine". Though as usual, he managed to blow his own foot off while aiming at me. Not that it wasn't hilarious... :DActually, I think he did a fair job of exposing the poor science used to support GW doomsayers.
No, I wasn't talking about expected rate of increase. I was talking, again, about MEASURED rate of increase. Which is unprecedented (even if less than expected.)So now you have a time machine and you actually measured the temperature 80 years from now? Who wins the World Series in 2090?
So now you have a time machine and you actually measured the temperature 80 years from now?You can't possibly be /that/ dense, can you? When I say "MEASURED", I mean /measured/ -- as in the recent past and up to today. Only trolls are /this/ moronic. Hey, wait a minute...
You claimed El Nino brings more rainfall globally, on average. "Says who?", said I.Your own Wikipedia aticle, for one.
Incidentally, that article was to address your "doubts" that El Nino could possibly lead to droughts anywhere.When did I say periodic droughts aren't normal? I said that overall, El Nino brings more precipitation. I never said it was universal.
Glad to have helped you refresh your memory, particularly after such a long and difficult span of time......said like a man trying to cover his tracks.
*Sigh*Provide the quotation.
This one:
So I'll ask my question again:So now you have a time machine and you actually measured the temperature 80 years from now?You can't possibly be /that/ dense, can you? When I say "MEASURED", I mean /measured/ -- as in the recent past and up to today. Only trolls are /this/ moronic. Hey, wait a minute...
Provide the quotation.Would you like me to reprint the article here, because you're too lazy to go over to Wikipedia and read it? Here's my approach to life: first learn the subject at hand, then go around discussing it. Not the other way around.
Are you suggesting the world has NEVER been warmer than it is now?No.
I read it, but apparently you didn't.Provide the quotation.Would you like me to reprint the article here, because you're too lazy to go over to Wikipedia and read it? Here's my approach to life: first learn the subject at hand, then go around discussing it. Not the other way around.
Oh, the URL was bad due to some unicode mishap. Here's a workable URL:Here's a quote:
http://en.wikiped...illation
Are you suggesting the world has NEVER been warmer than it is now?No.
But the (now extinct) dinosaurs and the flora/fauna of the period were far better adapted to that much warmer world, than are we and our present biosphere.
Hey, what's another mass extinction, right?
Here's a quote:Here's a couple more quotes:
"...it creates increased rainfall across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean."
Are you suggesting the world hasn't been warmer than it is now in the last 800,000 years?Exhibit 1:
Here's a couple more quotes:Even in light years, these areas are often covered in snow. This year, much of America had record snowstorms (more on this later).
"In North America, El Nino creates warmer-than-average winters in the upper Midwest states and the Northwest, thus reduced snowfall than average during winter."
"In Africa, East Africa, including Kenya, Tanzania and the White Nile basin experiences, in the long rains from March to May, wetter than normal conditions. There also are drier than normal conditions from December to February in south-central Africa, mainly in Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Botswana."It doesn't snow in this region anyway!
And once again, the relevance of El Nino to GW is...? Having now read at least parts of the article, you surely by now understand the localized nature of ENSO's ocean warming?I never said it wasn't a localized event. I merely suggested it's a real-world model upon which we might extrapolate.
Try to pay attention to the three illustration on the right side, at the above link.What are you trying to convey here?
Exhibit 1:Yeah, so? Ice core depths. What about them?
Exhibit 2:Right. Notice how the highest temperatures just precede the iceage? Isn't that an amazing coinincidence?
Exhibit 3:Yeah, so? Most of it is conjectured. Even so, I haven't denied that warming has occured. But is it a spike? Lately, the temperatures have fallen off. Cite: http://en.wikiped...ures.png
Oh, I suppose this should've been exhibit 1.5:So? Regular fluctuations. The current period doen't look unusual.
And oh by the way, you MAY be interested in this one:And again, notice how the temperature spikes preceed the iceages.
It's not the antartic ice that matters. It's lower lattitude snow cover (more below).
So what's the nature of correlation between Antarctic temperature and global ice volume?
When a person believes his personal beliefs, ideas and/or opinions, are absolutely true, it becomes dogma. Sadly, dogma comes from every social affiliation.I think I've been talking with an idiot. I'm done...
"It seems that when their argument fails to convince, atheists (or 'liberals' or 'progressives')turn to personal abuse and hyperbole." http://www.smh.co...9i3.html
Looks like such insults occur across the web.
The above data set clearly demonstrates the relationship between global temperatures and global snow/ice cover: snow/ice volume globally decreases with rising temperature. The data is clear, it's empirical, it's unequivocal, and it obliterates the need for any further 'theoretical' debates.That data is extremely limited (to say the least). It's from Antarctic ice cores (a relatively isolated continent) and simply by having preserved the ice doesn't prove any corollary with winter weather throughout the world. Quite strictly, it's only a measurement of the snowfall in that area, during those times. Particularly noteworthy, Antarctica is a desert. Annual snowfall there ranges from only 2 to 8 inches annually. It's actually completely dry in some places.
@ ubavontuba: They just can't generate a rational response.Should I too then be insulted?
The theory the 'liberals' can't engage in a rational debate without insults and personal attacks continues to hold.
"why do the arguments of Liberals appear to be so illogical, and, why do Liberals hurl so many insults? "
"The reason Libs are using insults and illogic is to shut down public debate."
http://www.bigpic..._final_/
I'm not here to wage politics, or some sort of ideological warfare. I don't consider this as "our" site. This site is just a science news aggregator. I started talking to ubavontuba because I thought he/she was genuinely engaging in discussion with a goal of figuring something out. However, it has now become clear that they're just as biased and set in stone, as marjon.
So, with respect to wasting time, I can assure you I am indeed done here, and I'll think twice before engaging ubavontuba on any other topic in the future. But I won't go so far as to report him/her. He/she didn't exactly violate the code of conduct for the site, as ideological warfare is not explicitly forbidden unless it is altogether off-topic.
That data is extremely limited (to say the least). It's from Antarctic ice cores (a relatively isolated continent) and simply by having preserved the ice doesn't prove any corollary with winter weather throughout the world. Quite strictly, it's only a measurement of the snowfall in that area, during those times.I will now kindly ask you to READ THE "SUMMARY" PARAGRAPH BELOW THE GRAPH:
@ubavontuba,I read it, and I'm well aware of the extrapolations (largely based on deep sea protozoa sediments). As I said earlier, warmer and cooler water temperature signals might not correlate with snow accumulation - just as more snow in California does not correlate with a cooler ocean. And, I'm obviously not the only one who's recognized this. See: http://www.physor...866.html
I will now kindly ask you to READ THE "SUMMARY" PARAGRAPH BELOW THE GRAPH:
Happy trails.
He/she didn't exactly violate the code of conduct for the site, as ideological warfare is not explicitly forbidden unless it is altogether off-topic.
Popper developed falsification in part because socialists attempted to use science to support their ideology. Do you still attempt to use science to support your socialist ideology?
Let's see... You made a claim that you couldn't backup with any relevant evidence (which you apparently think makes you a scientist). I made a counter and self described speculative suggestion, which I was able to support with overwhelming evidence - and you accuse me of espousing pseudoscience?? (incredulity).He/she didn't exactly violate the code of conduct for the site, as ideological warfare is not explicitly forbidden unless it is altogether off-topic.
No, but pseudoscience is, which both he and Marjon preach often.
(at least his argument came with several references to supporting evidenceYou mean broken and cached webcam pictures from the wrong times of year, plus an inability to read your own material?
You mean broken and cached webcam pictures from the wrong times of year, plus an inability to read your own material?Sure, I made a couple of errors in trying to access some active webcams. I admitted it and made corrections.
I have, but I notice you haven't agreed to do so.Try going over the material again.
I would suggest you do the same.
Quantum_Conundrum
Jun 3, 2010